Current position: Carefully Floating. Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both lower to start the day. The Atlanta Fed has reduced their Q3 GDP estimate once again from an increase of 1.3%, just 10 days ago, to just a 0.5% increase now. This is down substantially from the 2.6% increase they were forecasting just 3 weeks ago.

Current position: Carefully Floating. Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are lower to start the day. The White House announced that a tentative railway strike deal is in place, which is great news for supply chains and inflation. If this resolution were not to be reached, more than 100k railway workers would have walked off the job and the estimated cost to the economy would have been $2B per day.

With the continued deterioration in MBS, we have changed our focus to the 5% coupon. Bonds went through their monthly coupon rollover last night. This occurs each month because Mortgage Bonds are finite. They have an end term, such as 30 years. Therefore, each month a new 30-year period begins. This new 30-day extension is reflected in an adjusted rollover price. This rollover does not impact your pricing. The effect of yesterday's rollover was -16bp.

Current position: Floating. Bonds will go through their monthly coupon rollover after the close of the market today. This occurs each month because Mortgage Bonds are finite. They have an end term, such as 30 years. Therefore, each month a new 30-year period begins. This new 30-day extension is reflected in an adjusted rollover price. This rollover does not impact your pricing.

Current position: Locking Bias. Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both lower to start the day. Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to talk tough on inflation today, saying that it is still far too high and he is committed to do the job of reducing it. The Bond market is reacting negatively, which can come as a surprise - If the Fed sounds too worried that they so far behind the curve, if can scare the markets.

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both higher after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that were 315,000 jobs created in August, which was above expectations of 300,000. There was also 107,000 in negative revisions to June and July.

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both lower to start the day. The southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu announced a lockdown of its 21.2 million residents. They are required to stay home with households allowed to send one person per day to shop for necessities.

Stocks are higher and Mortgage Bonds are slightly lower to start the day. Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester, was interviewed and used the word pain 9 times in her talk, taking the cue from Jerome Powell.

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both higher to start the day, rebounding after the past two days of declines following the "pain" comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both sharply lower to start the day. At the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, Jerome Powell roiled the markets in a short eight-minute speech on Friday where he said that "curbing inflation with cause pain for U.S. households and businesses.

Stocks are mixed and Mortgage Bonds are lower to start the day. The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed that inflation fell 0.1% in July, which was in line with expectations. The year over year reading fell from 6.8% to 6.3%, which was higher than the 6.2% expected.

Stocks are slightly higher and Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged levels so far this morning. The second of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) showed that the US fell an annualized 0.6% in Q2, following a 1.6% contraction in Q1.

Current position: Carefully Floating. Stocks are higher and Mortgage Bonds are lower to start the day. Tomorrow kicks off the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which means that today Fed Chair Jerome Powell is heading to Jackson.

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds, after being lower in the early going, are now higher.

New Home Sales, which measures signed contracts on new homes, were down 12.6% in July at a 511k unit annualized pace, which was much worse than expected. Sales are now down almost 30% year over year.

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both sharply lower to start the day.

This week will be highlighted by New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, the second reading on Q3 GDP, The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, PCE, and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both sharply lower to start the day.

The big headline from yesterday was that Zillow reported home prices fell 0.1% in July, which is the first decrease since 2012. The big missing piece of the story, is that Zillow said "median" home values fell 0.1%.

In housing news, Existing Home Sales, which measure closings on existing homes, showed that sales were down 5.9% in June at a 4.81M annualized pace, which was pretty in line with expectations.

Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both sharply lower to start the day. Retail Sales were flat in the month of July, which is a little less than expectations of a 0.1% gain. They are up 10.3% year over year.

Stocks and Bonds are both trading near unchanged levels so far this morning.

According to Redfin, 44% of homes sold in bidding wars, with an average of 3.5 offers in July. While this is lower than the peak this of 70% in January, it's still quite strong.

Stocks are lower and Mortgage Bonds are higher to start the week.

Richmond Fed President, Thomas Barkin, spoke and said that the Fed needs to keep hiking until we see 2% for three months. He is speaking to Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) which is currently at 4.8%.