August 5th, 2022 - Market Update
Current position: Carefully floating
Stocks and Mortgage Bonds are both lower after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that were 528,000 jobs created in July, which was more than double expectations of 250,000. There was also 28,000 in positive revisions to May and June.
The Unemployment Rate declined from 3.6% to 3.5%, which was lower than expectations of a fifth month in a row of 3.6%. The unemployment rate comes from the household survey, which has its own job creations component.
This report showed 179,000 job creations, while the labor force decreased by 63,000. For those reasons, the unemployment rate decreased, but again, partially due to the drop in the labor force and participate rate declining another 0.1% to 62.1%.
The real unemployment rate is higher than 3.5%, but the U-3 is what everyone looks at, and removes individuals who are not actively searching for a job -
There are almost 6 million people that are not being counted that "want a job" but have not looked in the last four weeks.
The U-6 all-in unemployment rate, which adds back all these individuals, remained at 6.7%.
Average hourly earnings were up 0.5% in July and are up 5.2% year over year. Average weekly earnings were up 0.5% and are up 4.6% year over year.
Source: MBS Highway
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